A Fragile Pause in the Iran War

With just hours to spare before a threatened US bombing campaign, the United States and Iran agreed on Tuesday to a two-week ceasefire — a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough brokered by Pakistan that halted what could have been one of the most destructive single nights of the conflict. The deal’s central condition: Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway carrying roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply, which Tehran had effectively shut down since the war began in late February.

The agreement came after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir personally appealed to Trump, asking him to hold off on the strikes and urging Iran to reopen the strait as a goodwill gesture. Sharif later invited delegations from both countries to Islamabad on Friday, April 10, to negotiate a conclusive settlement. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Tehran’s acceptance, saying safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible for the two-week period via coordination with Iran’s armed forces.

Both sides claimed victory. The White House said Israel had also agreed to the terms, though Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office clarified the ceasefire did not extend to Lebanon, where Israeli operations continue. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council declared that the country had achieved nearly all its war objectives, while Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered all military branches to cease fire — but added pointedly that “this is not the end of the war.” After the ceasefire came into force, missiles were still launched from Iran towards Israel and several Gulf states. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of Iran-backed groups, said it too would suspend operations for two weeks.

Financial markets reacted with instant relief — S&P 500 futures rose more than 1%, while oil futures sank about 6%, reflecting just how much economic anxiety the conflict had generated. Whether the Islamabad talks deliver a lasting settlement remains deeply uncertain. For now, the world has two weeks to find out.

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